An El Nino will most likely be controlling our weather in the second half of this year. Despite the recent April and May rains, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has confirmed that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in an El Niño phase.

El Niño events are part of a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather. The last El Niño was a moderate to strong event that developed in our spring 2023 and lasted into early 2024. El Niño often brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia in winter and spring.

Although in a warming climate past patterns are less reliable as a predictor of future impacts, most current models suggest this year’s El Nino event is likely to be strong to very strong.

Forecasts show El Niño conditions are likely to persist well into the latter half of 2026. Rainfall is likely to be below average in southern and eastern Australia, temperatures above average in most areas, except parts of the north, increased frost risk due to clearer skies and lower snow depths in Australia's Alpine regions. Check out the BOM references below.

References:

BOM, 16 June 2026 El Niño: what it means for Australia's climate

https://www.bom.gov.au/news-and-media/el-nino-what-it-means-for-australias-climate

BOM Video Understanding ENSO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzat16LMtQk&t=17s

Contributed by: Iraphne Childs