Dysfunctional path dependence in mid-century dairy farming on eastern Australia’s subtropical coastlands: case studies at Moruya and Copmanhurst - a perspective on some historical fieldwork

After a gap of almost 50 years, Professor Holmes has been prompted to revisit and publish this work (recently submitted to the journal Geographical Research) by noting that some of his thoughts on path dependence have currently become fashionable among evolutionary economists and economic geographers who have adapted it to explore patterns of regional growth and decline.

The entrenchment and prolonged dysfunctional survival of low-cost, low-income, labour-intensive dairy farming on the subtropical coastlands of eastern Australia was a potent case of path dependence. At both Moruya and Copmanhurst, the dairy industry comprised a core of long-term stable producers, located mainly on the more accessible and productive alluvial soils, together with a fluctuating number of marginal producers. The dairy farmers’ “locked-in” economic activities were founded on: the initial rural settlement imprint; the structure of farm enterprises; lack of alternative income sources; the culture and capabilities of farm families; environmental and locational disadvantages; integration within transport, processing and marketing infrastructure; proactive policy support by state and federal governments and preferential trade to an overseas market. The demise of dairying was delayed in part by the industry’s exceptional survival capabilities and the lack of any viable alternative farming staple. Its exceptionally rapid collapse in the 1960s and 1970s was triggered by its inability to undertake the needed reinvestment in response to on-farm and off-farm technological change which occurred on the more productive dairy lands in cool temperate zones in New Zealand and southern Australia. The two case studies here revealed insights into the dynamics of rural change and evolutionary economic geography.

Fieldwork equipment in 1950s comprised a 1938 Chevrolet coupe sedan, basic gear for camping and sustenance, camera, reporter’s notebooks and biros. Source J.H. Holmes

1952 photo of Bergalia cheese factory (a production-oriented land use) which closed in 1951. Source: J.H. Holmes

2010 John Holmes, with Moruya’s last dairy farmer one year prior to the closure of his dairy. Source: J.H. Holmes

by Professor John Holmes